Can Numbers of Publications on a Specific Topic Observe the Research Trend of This Topic: A Case Study of the Biomarker HER-2?

Using the accumulative publication data on HER-2 and its trend line, we draw the accumulative curve of the publication data. We discuss the characteristics of the accumulative publication curve, and how these characteristics change with respect to the different trend lines. We find that the points that regression line and the publication curve intersect with each other and the minimum points with respect to the trend lines do not change very much in both exponential trend line and linear trend line even if the exponential trend line raises itself much faster than the linear trend line. These data points are formed around the time when the significant discoveries are made and the related regulations are executed. These significant discoveries and regulations impact how and where the research should go and how the basic discoveries influence their application. The accumulative publication curve itself tells us very little about science. However the change of the accumulative publication curve with respect to the trend lines may tell us how science evolves. The content in the publications with significant scientific value may change the direction and trend of research, while research may change the publication trend the other way round. We may say that important scientific discoveries and regulations on clinical practice act as tipping points or act as drivers of change in the rates of scientific publications on the topic of HER-2. This induces us further to explore how scientific events drive the publication process. We may expect that through the publication process, we can monitor the scientific process. Conference Topic Theory